The Cubs had high hopes coming into the season. Many believed they would win the NL Central and surely they internally felt as much. They sprung out of the gate with a 17-9 record through April 26. They were tied for first place in the NL Central as late as May 8 and were a major factor in the wild-card race for a bit longer. From May 22 through July 3, however, the Cubs went 12-26, falling to 13 games out in the division and six games back of a playoff spot.
They seemed to be moving firmly into "sell" territory. But then they got hot! Then they lost six of nine. They now sit 5 1/2 games out of a playoff spot, but need to leap over four teams to get into playoff position.
Here's what you need to know about the Cubs and their trade deadline situation.
Cubs president Jed Hoyer has essentially said they aren't in the market for rental players and would only be looking to add players who would help them in 2025 and maybe beyond. He seems to still believe strongly in the future of the team he is building, which means they likely won't be parting with any of the top prospects, either. Conversely, that also likely means they aren't going to be trading away major-league players with years of team control remaining (more on that later).
In looking at both the rest of this season and to the future, the Cubs could use a third baseman -- getting Christopher Morel off the field and to DH -- though top prospect Matt Shaw might not be too far away. A two-year stopgap would be ideal. The catching situation this season has been among the worst in baseball and while Miguel Amaya could improve, he hasn't shown enough here at age 25 to avoid addressing the position. If they somehow found offensive upgrades at third and catcher while kicking Morel to DH, that would help improve what has been an embarrassing decline with the bats, which all lies with the players already on the roster who have been collectively underperforming.
The other big need if the Cubs are trying to win in the short-term lies in the bullpen. It hasn't been nearly as bad of late as it was early in the season, but there is still a lack of reliability out there. Of course, outside of acquiring Mason Miller -- and there's no way Hoyer will pull off such a move if the A's even make him available -- every bullpen arm would likely be a rental.
This section is going to be light, because I fully expect the Cubs to be quiet. Hoyer continues to bide his time with the organizational development and seems content to mostly let things play out the rest of this season before finding ways to improve in the offseason moving toward 2025. Though 5 1/2 games isn't a lot to make up in two months, Hoyer has mentioned before this season that a bigger obstacle is the number of teams to jump over.
It doesn't feel like there's much urgency from ownership, either.
Given the position of the Cubs in the standings right now along with Hoyer's recent comments, I'd put any exciting moves out of your mind and instead expect Hoyer to mostly rearrange the deck furniture. Remember him trading Nelson Velázquez for José Cuas last season? It'll be stuff like that if they even add, but right now the team looks like a seller.
Where the failure of Hoyer is evident with this group is that it just isn't built to sell. Dansby Swanson is having a terrible year and is locked up through 2029. Seiya Suzuki is adequate and locked up through 2026. Ian Happ has been swinging a hot bat, but isn't great overall and is signed through 2026. Nico Hoerner is a below-average hitter who isn't running nearly as much and whose defense has regressed and he's signed through 2026. Cody Bellinger is hurt and has two player options of at least $25 million each left on his deal. He wasn't having a season that would make him an attractive acquisition at that price before the injury.
Jameson Taillon is someone who could be dealt and his name has appeared in trade rumors. He's having a good season and is due $18 million in both 2025 and 2026. The Cubs do have a little depth among young starting pitchers, too, so this might be where Hoyer is thinking he could get something in return without hurting his next two teams.
Relievers Héctor Neris, Tyson Miller and Mark Leiter Jr. could fetch organizational depth and that's the type of stuff that could be moved in retooling mode.
I suppose it's possible to pull the plug on Christopher Morel and trade him, too, as his power upside is attractive.
It seems like the big trading chip would be Justin Steele, but he's under team control through 2027 and wouldn't that be a signal to the fans that you were tearing down? That just can't happen, not in Hoyer's fourth year with very little success to show at the big-league level so far.
Everything is fluid with the club on the periphery of contention with an executive who seems to love how he's building the farm. As such, the expectation is the Cubs will be quiet, but if they string together a lot more losses before the deadline, it's always possible he sells off a few pieces.
The best bet is they do very little outside of tinkering.
2024-07-26T14:04:10Z dg43tfdfdgfd